**
POLI 272 BAYESIAN METHODS
Seventh Assignment
Due 19 November 2009**

- Use the Examples that I have posted of Ernesto Calvo's Interface with WINBUGS to rerun re-run the
three Houses you analyzed in
Homework 4, Homework 5, and
Homework 6. Read the
**STATA**files as shown in several of the Calvo examples and run both Probit and Logit models.

- Use the regression example of
output From Running Calvo's
R2WINBUGS Code on Bush's 2000 Vote By Congressional District (PDF) to run a similar model using this
**STATA**dataset of the 1996 U.S. Presidential election by Congressional district:

pelect96.dta --**STATA**data file for 1996 Presidential Election Results by Congressional Districtions. Here are the variables:**. d Contains data from C:\Inetpub\ftproot\wf1\pelect96.dta obs: 407 vars: 10 4 Oct 2000 11:22 size: 9,361 (99.1% of memory free) ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- storage display value variable name type format label variable label ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- clint96 byte %8.0g clinton vote dole96 byte %8.0g dole vote perot96 byte %8.0g perot vote income float %9.0g distr. median income nom1 float %9.0g nominate 1st dim. nom2 float %9.0g nominate 2nd dim. party byte %8.0g political party 0=Dem, 1=Rep south byte %8.0g region 0=north, 1=south afram byte %8.0g percent black hisp byte %8.0g percent hispanic ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Sorted by: . summ Variable | Obs Mean Std. Dev. Min Max -------------+-------------------------------------------------------- clint96 | 407 50.41769 12.74948 26 94 dole96 | 407 39.73464 11.77471 4 68 perot96 | 407 8.289926 2.876689 1 16 income | 407 30.83125 8.369561 15.052 57.219 nom1 | 407 .0459017 .3525151 -.625 .71 -------------+-------------------------------------------------------- nom2 | 407 -.1009656 .4474046 -1.73 1.12 party | 407 .5380835 .4991611 0 1 south | 407 .2678133 .4433647 0 1 afram | 407 10.96314 15.61091 0 74 hisp | 407 8.722359 14.20137 0 83**- Run the regression of the Clinton vote -- clint96 -- on income, party, south, afram, hisp, nom1, nom2. Compare the
results to
**STATA**.

- Run the regression of the Dole vote -- dole96 -- on income, party, south, afram, hisp, nom1, nom2. Compare the
results to
**STATA**.

- Run the regression of the Perot vote -- perot96 -- on income, party, south, afram, hisp, nom1, nom2. Compare the
results to
**STATA**.

- Create a dichotomous variable in
**STATA**that is "1" if Clinton's vote is greater than or equal to 50%, and "0" otherwise. Run the probit model using the same specification as above using the Calvo model.

- Run the Logit model for Clinton's vote using the Calvo model.

- Calculate the Pearson Correlation Coefficient between the coefficients
(
!!) between the Probit and Logit coefficients for Clinton's vote.*excluding the intercept term*

- Run the regression of the Clinton vote -- clint96 -- on income, party, south, afram, hisp, nom1, nom2. Compare the
results to
- Repeat 2(d)-2(f) for the Dole vote.