**
POLI 272 BAYESIAN METHODS
Fourth Assignment
Due 29 October 2009**

- Follow the instructions in Running Regressions in STATA and WINBUGS
and run regressions using 3 of the
**Excel**spreadsheets posted on Excel Spreadsheet Download Page. In particular, pick 3 that are at least 20 years apart but none before H50.XLS (1887-88 U.S. House of Representatives)! For example, H60.XLS, H70.XLS, and H80.XLS are each 20 years apart.

- Show the results from
**STATA**and the corresponding results from**WINBUGS**in the fashion explained in Running Regressions in STATA and WINBUGS and shown in the handout Reagan Presidential Support Example for WINBUGS (PDF).

- Show the statistics for the Betas and Sigma with updates at 1000, 10,000, and 100,000. How do the results
change?

- Show the Density plots for the Betas and Sigma. Do these make sense?

- Show the Auto Correlation plots for the Betas and Sigma. Do these make sense?

- Show the History plots for the Betas and Sigma. According to the
**WINBUGS**Manual, "Checking Convergence" (near the end), do the chains look like they have converged?

- Show the results from
- For
*one House File (Not all three!)*, run the following Probit in both**STATA**and**WINBUGS**. Treat**partydum**as the dependent variable and run:

**probit partydum x2 southdum**

Report the**STATA**results and repeat 1a) - 1e) for this problem as well.

h105_BUGS_probit_model.txt --**WINBUGS**model illustrating how to use Probit