POLI 272 BAYESIAN METHODS
Third Assignment
Due 22 October 2009


All homeworks must be neatly typed with Microsoft Word or its equivalent with all R and WINBUGS code shown in an Appendix.

  1. Work Chapter 3, Exercise 1, on page 58 of Bayesian Computation With R.

  2. Work the Rats Example in WINBUGS. It is under the Help menu "Examples vol I". Work the problem using both sets of Priors and the Missing data exercise. Report your results in the same form as shown in the example

  3. Run the following model of the Bush 2000 vote by Congressional District Characteristics:
    Regression_106_model.txt -- WinBUGS program that Runs Regression of Bush 2000 vote on Congressional District Data
    1. Show the statistics for the Betas and Sigma with updates at 1000, 10,000, and 100,000. How do the results change?

    2. Show the Density plots for the Betas and Sigma. Do these make sense?

    3. Show the Auto Correlation plots for the Betas and Sigma. Do these make sense?

    4. Show the History plots for the Betas and Sigma. According to the WINBUGS Manual, "Checking Convergence" (near the end), do the chains look like they have converged?