Summary: Changes in Congress 1947 - 2002



  1. The Disappearance of the Marginal Districts: 1960 - 1980

    1972 Mayhew Graph
    1960 Mayhew Graph
    Percent Marginal Districts: 1946 - 1998

    1. Was it the Redistricting in the early 1960s? Fiorina (1977), No.

    2. Was it the Increase in the Incumbency Advantage? Fiorina (1977), Yes.

      House Incumbency Advantage
      Senate Incumbency Advantage

    3. Why did the Incumbency Advantage Increase? Fiorina (1977), the dramatic increase of the "Casework Style" of Representation

      Congressional Staff
      Committee Staff

    4. The Growth of Government Increases the Opportunities for Members of Congress to Provide Assistance to Constituents

      Pages in the Federal Register: 1936-2001

  2. Why Did the System Appear to Change Again After 1980?

    Percent Marginal Districts: 1946 - 1998
    Local-National Effects Midterm House Elections
    Local-National Effects Presidential Year House Elections

    1. Fiorina (2001): Everyone Started Using the Casework Style! A High Level of Constituency Service Became the Norm and was Expected by the Voters!

      Congressional Staff
      Committee Staff

    2. Fiorina (2001): Incumbents Have a Money Advantage

      Campaign Expenditures Congressional Elections
      Soft Money Congressional Elections

    3. Fiorina (2001): Politicians in General Care Much More About Policy Than They Used To

      Polarization

    4. Cox and Katz (2002): The Redistricting Did Do it!